Three Reasons for Calm

I've been silent for a while again, but in my defense, so has Hariri. Since the elections, positive signs began to appear here and there, with the M8/M14 divide beginning to seem weaker. Meetings between rivals, most notably Hariri and Nasrallah, were a-plenty and things seemed to be heading towards a tension-free transition.

Berri's reelection as parliament speaker defied all political logic (given his past role in paralyzing in the parliament for the better part of 2007-2008) and proved that Lebanon's hope for a better future has overcome its fear of a bitter past. It was also a very visible reminder that Lebanon does not function like other democracies where the majority gets to pick, regardless of what the minority wants.

But the political lovemaking seems to be over and an eerie silence has taken hold. Of course, there's a few statements here and there with specific demands and claims by individual parties, but the general atmosphere is nothing compared to what took place after the Doha agreement, where Sanioura had the seemingly impossible task of distributing 10 portfolios to 15 eager ministery hopefuls. Hariri himself has been awefully quiet and I thank him for that. Hezbollah has been less quiet, but when they have spoken, steered clear of tension-generating words such as "the disruptive third" or even the more positive "insuring third." Instead they refer to "a new formula" that ensures "effective participation", which, to be honest, seems to say pretty much the same thing.

This quiet does not, to me, indicate that things are going well. Sure they're not going horribly wrong, but I suspect several not so encouraging reasons behind this:

1. A slightly positive explanation is this: Parties involved are aware that eventually a government has to be formed and the higher they raise the stakes, the more difficult it will be for a "no-winner no-loser" agreement to be reached. And we all know too well, from May of last year, what a "winner-loser" formula costs. So unlike last year, when both parties cut off any route for retreat for themselves, the positions now are a lot softer. Hariri is not declaring every other day that he is against giving the opposition a third of government seats, and Nasrallah is not declaring everyday that he will accept nothing less. Aoun and some of the lesser M14 players are a different story, but even they seem to be quieting down a bit.

2. A less positive but similar alternative explanation: The final outcome of the discussions are dependant on a lot of external factors, namely Syria's new found love with the international and Arab communities. The Lebanese players themselves are remaining somewhat silent because they aren't as much in control of the situation as they would like to be. They certainly want to avoid making grandiose statements about what they accept and do not accept as government makeup only to find out that an agreement made in the halls of international diplomacy says otherwise.

3. Finally, the least optimistic alternative: The actual division is still as deep as it used to be. Hezbollah's weapons are still the fudamental problem with Hariri wanting to form a government strong enough to get rid of these weapons once and for all and Nasrallah wanting, well, none of that. The only reason they aren't yelling and screaming at each other is that summer is here. A temporary truce has been called, because despite of all their differences, all parties agree on how badly Lebanon's economy needs a successful touristic season. Tourism this summer in Lebanon is expected to reach a historic record high of up to 2 million tourists (in a country that houses 4 million remember). So all real discussion is postponed until something like September when the tourists go home and the loud political bickering resumes.