Bomb in Tripoli

11 people (according to the latest reports at this point) were killed in a bomb blast in Tripoli this morning. The bomb was placed on the sidewalk and apparently detonated remotely.

This particular bus normally transports off-duty soldiers to their positions, so most of the victims were soldiers. So who did it? The correct answer is, "I have no idea. Let's not dish out accusations and wait for the investigation to take its course." But in the mean time, let's bring out the usual suspects:

1. Fateh Al-Islam: a fundamentalist islamist militant group that fought our army last year, were defeated. On January 7, 2008, their leader Shaker Al-Absi made a speech in which he vowed revenge against the Lebanese army (YaLibnan). Some 300 people accused of belonging to Fateh Al-Islam are currently detained at Roumieh prison, and some of them are on hunger strike to protest the delay in their trials (The Daily Star). Yesterday I talked about how their families staged a protest demanding that they be released.

2. Jabal Muhsen/Bab El-Tabbaneh conflict: the sectarian conflict between the Sunnis and Alawites in these two neighborhoods of the north has been going on for a while. With the army trying to end the conflict using force (Ya Libnan), it's possible that one of them is fighting back. But the sectarian nature of their conflict and the very un-sectarian nature of the attack make the matter a bit more complicated.

And of course, no suspect list would be complete without our two favorite accusees:

3. Syria: Our sisterly neighbor is always accused of something. If not directly accused of committing the crime (CNN), then they're indirectly accused of supporting or inciting those who did it (Time). The most common argument is that Syria wants to invoke chaos in Lebanon cause that would permit it to regain its military presence there. But of course we cannot overlook the fact that Syria is quite comfortable these days with the way things are happening in Lebanon. Its allies in Lebanon are now in the government, and our president is visiting Damascus today. Why they would start causing chaos today is beyond me.

4. Israel / United States: Up until 2004, this duo had a virtual monopoly on accusations concerning anything that goes wrong. What about today? Do we have a case against them? I don't think so. Sure, they might be pissed off at the formation of a new government in which Hezbollah has some power. Sure they're definitely pissed off that the new government platform implicitly allows Hezbollah to keep its weapons for the time being (Jerusalem Post). Sure they're pissed off at how the Lebanese celebrated the return of Samir Kuntar (Jerusalem Post). And it’s also possible that they’re not very happy about the Lebanese president visiting Damascus today, a clear sign of improving relations between Lebanon and Syria. But the very nature of the attack all but eliminates the possibility that Israel was behind it. Why Tripoli? Why attack the Lebanese army? Why blow up a civilian bus? I'm sure there are people out there who are already cursing at Israel and the US. But not me. Not this time.

Photo by AFP taken from BBC.